Decisions under uncertainty

What the publications show

1. Executive surveys by Sentry and BARC report that companies have moved to shorter planning cycles because geopolitical events move faster than their own view of risk. The KPMG survey in the car industry points the same way.

   Sentry (conducted by Wakefield Research), 2026 (opens in a new window) · BARC, 2025 (opens in a new window) · KPMG, 2026 (opens in a new window)

2. Geopolitical risk is climbing the boardroom agenda. Among board members, this risk rose from 15th to 7th place in a year (WTW and Reed Smith), and The Conference Board sees CEOs starting the year with uncertainty as the biggest threat.

   WTW and Reed Smith, 2026 (opens in a new window) · The Conference Board, 2026 (opens in a new window) · Directors & Boards, 2026 (opens in a new window)

3. Academic publications treat geopolitics as a strategic issue. Grenoble Ecole de Management distinguishes uncertainty without calculable probabilities from risk, and WHU finds seven ways of reducing exposure in the annual reports of 20 European multinationals.

   Grenoble Ecole de Management, 2026 (opens in a new window) · WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, 2026 (opens in a new window)

4. One KPMG survey of executives in the car industry reports that 63 per cent rely more heavily on data, while 43 per cent say decisions are made faster. Slow decision-making and governance top the list of internal obstacles there.

   KPMG, 2026 (opens in a new window)

5. A conceptual article from Sapienza University of Rome argues that digital platforms help determine which geopolitical information managers see and find credible. This conclusion rests on a single publication.

   Sapienza University of Rome, 2026 (opens in a new window)

Topics within decisions under uncertainty

This list shows what the publications on this theme are about, with the number for each topic. Open a topic to see its publications; if a topic has a briefing, the link is underneath.

• Shorter planning cycles3 publications

  • Resilient Planning in Volatile Markets · BARC, 2025
  • 2026 C-Suite Stress Index: Midyear Report · Sentry (conducted by Wakefield Research), 2026
  • 26th Global Automotive Executive Survey: Thriving in the age of moving targets · KPMG, 2026
  Briefing: Executive planning cycles and geopolitical risk →
• Geopolitical risk4 publications

  • Which risks are shaping director and officer agendas in 2026 · WTW and Reed Smith, 2026
  • Managing geopolitical risk in global supply chains: A qualitative study of European multinational enterprises · WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, 2026
  • From geopolitical risk to geopolitical uncertainty: a scenario-based approach · Grenoble Ecole de Management, 2026
  • Geopolitical knowledge infrastructures and managerial decision-making: advancing the state–citizens–platforms triad · Sapienza University of Rome, 2026
• Uncertainty at the top4 publications

  • Survey: CEOs Start 2026 on Edge, Citing Uncertainty as Top Threat · The Conference Board, 2026
  • 2026 Forecast: A Mix of Shock and Awe · Directors & Boards, 2026
  • 2026 C-Suite Stress Index: Midyear Report · Sentry (conducted by Wakefield Research), 2026
  • Which risks are shaping director and officer agendas in 2026 · WTW and Reed Smith, 2026
• Data and decision speed2 publications

  • 26th Global Automotive Executive Survey: Thriving in the age of moving targets · KPMG, 2026
  • Geopolitical knowledge infrastructures and managerial decision-making: advancing the state–citizens–platforms triad · Sapienza University of Rome, 2026
  Briefing: Data, decision speed and mandate in organisations →

Briefings on this theme

Where several organisations publish roughly the same thing on a topic, we have used AI to compile a briefing. Click a card for the key point, the figures with their sources and what it means for the leadership team.