European chemical closures and cooperation within industrial clusters

On 31 October 2025 the Dutch government sent its Perspective for the chemical sector to the House of Representatives. The letter mentions the announced closures by Tronox and LyondellBasell in Rotterdam and deferred maintenance at Dow in Terneuzen. Because chemical companies are so closely intertwined, the government sees a serious risk that, without further policy, the industry will wind down in an uncontrolled way, with knock-on effects across the industrial clusters. It expects that basic chemicals in the Netherlands may become smaller but more sustainable, and names retraining, attracting and developing qualified staff as one of the preconditions. It left the detail, in a policy and implementation agenda, to the next government.

Commissioned by Cefic, the European industry association, Roland Berger tracks every publicly announced closure and investment in European chemicals, supplemented by a survey of companies. The first edition, covering 1 January 2022 to 8 December 2025, appeared at the end of January 2026. Announced closures rose from 2.9 million tonnes of capacity in 2022 to 17.2 million tonnes in 2025, a total of 37 million tonnes, or about 9 per cent of European capacity. Over the same period, confirmed investments fell from 2.7 to 0.3 million tonnes a year. Of the capacity announced for closure, 20 per cent is in the Netherlands, which has about 9 per cent of EU chemical turnover. Half of the petrochemical closures concern nine steam crackers, all in integrated clusters, which puts pressure on the companies further down those clusters. The announcements mention about 20,000 direct jobs; using a multiplier, the study puts the number of indirect jobs affected at 89,000. In 49 per cent of cases, companies cite energy costs as the main reason.

On 4 February 2026 the VNCI, the association of the Dutch chemical industry, wrote to the Dutch Senate that the sector accounts for over 48,000 direct and 123,000 indirect jobs in the Netherlands. According to the association, the 2.5-megatonne fall in CO2 emissions since 2023 is entirely due to production stops and closures. It points to how vulnerable clusters are when one link drops out, citing the chlorine cluster in the Botlek as an example, and to Nobian, which paused a €250 million investment in Delfzijl because of legal uncertainty over its permit.

On 9 July 2026 the government sent parliament the first cluster plan, for Chemelot in Geleen. Thirteen companies back a portfolio of twelve projects. The letter also notes the contraction on the site itself: in January 2026 Fibrant suspended caprolactam production and about 100 employees lost their jobs. At the same time, parts of the cluster are changing hands: SABIC is selling its European petrochemicals business to the German family firm AEQUITA, and OCI wants to sell half of OCI Nitrogen to the Czech group AGROFERT. Because the companies are tied to one another through feedstocks and energy, the loss of one hits the others directly. The plan therefore looks at how the projects fit together and what they mean for the cluster as a whole. The companies, the province of Limburg and the government aim to draw up a joint roadmap this autumn, with timelines, preconditions and milestones.

How solid is this? The contraction is widely documented by the government and by the European and Dutch industry associations, but the radar is a first edition commissioned by the sector itself. The shift towards decisions at cluster level rests on a single cluster plan, whose roadmap has yet to appear. Dutch figures on job losses are missing.